Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Lesson 4: Managing Your Investments

I.          Invest for the long run
For me there are four main tenants to a successful investment strategy:
1.       Long term investing
I am a growth/value oriented investor so I look for securities that I think will provide long term growth and good value.  I am a “buy and hold” style investor.  I tend to ignore the short term variations in the market and focus on sectors and segments where I think the long term value and growth will be and invest in those areas.  The practice of long term investing in areas that have performed well in the past helps to minimize costs (frequent buying and selling can quickly rack up significant costs for brokerage fees) and allows me to sleep well at night.  I am not worried that a risky investment I have made will suddenly crash and take my investment with it.
2.       Diversification
As I mentioned in lesson 3 mutual funds are an excellent way to get maximum diversification for the individual investor.  Diversification also helps me sleep well at night knowing that the odds of a mutual fund failing is much less than the odds of an individual corporation failing.  Mutual funds are my favorite investment vehicle and my preferred type of mutual fund is the ETF.  I like ETFs because they are easy to buy and they generally have relatively low fees.  Long term investing, which minimizes brokerage fees, and investing in funds with low fees are a couple of key components to successful investing.  Fees can significantly erode earnings on investments.
3.       Don’t try to time the market
Trying to time the market is simply gambling in my opinion and if you are going to gamble with your money the odds are better for you to play some game of chance in a casino.  Putting your money on a number on the roulette wheel, for example, with a 1 in 38 chance of winning has a much higher probability of success than trying to decide which stock or other security is going to go up or down in the market with millions of different choices available.  To me investing should be about finding a fund or other security that you think has long term value and investing in that security for the long term.  Gambling should be left to the casino.  It has no place, and should be kept out of the investment market in my opinion.
There are many different ways to “bet” on the market but I will mention only 2 here:
a.       Short selling
Short selling is the practice of borrowing securities for a certain length of time in anticipation that the price of the security will fall.  It is a form of gambling.  A couple of definitions will help you understand this form of gambling:  If you own a security (e.g. you own shares of Company X) you are considered to be “long” in that security as long as you own it.  If you have borrowed a security you are considered to be “short” in that security until you return it. 
The concept of short selling is that you sell the security you do not own today and then re-buy it later at a lower price and give it back to the owner while you keep the difference (less transaction fees) between the original sell price and the later purchase price.  For example:  you borrow (through a broker) 100 shares of Company XYZ and sell the shares today at the market price of $100 per share.  This “short sell” provides you with $10,000 of “borrowed” money.  Later (before the expiration of the “short sell” term) the market price of Company XYZ drops to $25 per share and you buy 100 shares at a cost of $2,500 and return the 100 shares of stock to the broker.  You have just made $7,500 (less brokerage fees) on the “short sale” of those stocks.  Short selling can generate good returns in a declining market, but can also result in huge losses if the price of the security increases between the time that the short sell is made and when the borrowed security is required to be returned.
b.      Options
There are two main types of options available on the market:
i.                     Option to Buy (call)
A call option gives the owner the right to buy a security (stock, commodity, etc.) at a certain price by a certain date. 
ii.                   Option to Sell (put)
A put option gives the owner the right to sell a security at a certain price by a certain date.
Options are often used as a way to “hedge” against market moves.  Call options can be used as a hedge against price increases and put options can be used as a hedge against price decreases. For example, a one year put option to sell 100 barrels of oil at $90 per barrel can be used to hedge against oil price declines in that year.  Conversely, a one year call option to buy 100 barrels of oil at $50 per barrel can be used as a hedge against oil price increases that year. Options can be allowed to expire without being exercised.  The reason for allowing an option to expire without exercising it is if the market conditions have changed so that the option is of no value.  In the example above the call option would have no value if the price of oil had dropped to $30 per barrel.  If options are allowed to expire you are out the cost of the option and options can be quite expensive depending upon when and how they are purchased. Options can be bought and sold over and over again throughout their life similar to bonds.  Options can also be held “long” or “short”.  Short selling options that then become worthless can result in huge losses.
Rather than partake in any of the above market timing techniques I use the “dollar-cost averaging” technique for my investing.  Dollar cost averaging is the practice of regularly investing a consistent dollar amount regardless of the market conditions.  The practice of regularly investing a consistent dollar amount naturally results in more securities being purchased during market down turns and less securities being purchased during market up swings.  It also naturally rebalances your portfolio over time toward lower cost securities because proportionately more of the lower cost securities are purchased than the higher cost securities.  In this way dollar cost averaging can provide a better return than the practice of regularly buying a set number of shares.
4.       Don’t take the advice of “experts”
Most “experts” have a profit motive for their recommendations so their guidance, in my opinion, is more geared towards helping themselves than helping you.  For this reason I chose to make my own investment decisions and manage my own money rather than seek the advice of a portfolio manager (this practice also avoids portfolio advisor/manager fees).  I also tend to focus on index funds rather than managed funds because the fees are less and I don’t have much confidence that the fund manager will be able to outperform the market, especially with a large fund (I tend to focus on large funds rather than small funds to reduce risk as a long term investor) so I don’t see the increased fees of the managed fund as justified.

II.        Track your investments
It is important to track your investments regularly, but as a long term investor it is wise not to track them too closely.  Watching the daily, hourly or minute-by-minute ups and downs of the market and your portfolio may encourage you to buy or sell frequently due to fear, anxiety or a desire to time the market.  Statistics have proven that long term investors who stay in the market through its ups and downs have better returns over the long run than do “day traders” or those who try to time the market.  This is mostly due to lower costs associated with long term investing (less brokerage fees) and the virtual impossibility of getting market timing right consistently over time.  I recommend reviewing your investments monthly to track progress against your goals but only make changes to investment direction (what you are investing in) or amount on an annual basis (semi-annual at most).

III.      Calculate your Personal Rate of Return (PRR)
To me one of the most exciting things about investing is watching my investments grow.  An important part of watching those investments grow is to calculate my annual personal rate of return so I can compare the growth rate of my portfolio to the market or other indices.  Calculating your annual personal rate of return is very easy; it is the difference in the value of your portfolio at the end of the year compared to the value of your portfolio at the beginning of the year divided by the value of your portfolio at the beginning of the year, expressed as a percentage:

PRR = (Y-X)/X*100%

X = the value of your portfolio at the beginning of the year
Y = the value of your portfolio at the end of the year

PRR is my primary goal for investing.  I have a long term goal for my PRR and I calculate my PRR every year to see how I have done against my goal that year.  I also calculate my 5 year, 10 year and cumulative average PRR to see how my PRR is trending with time against my goal.  My investment decisions are primarily geared toward achieving my long term PRR goal.

IV.      Reinvest your earnings
Dividends and interest are the two primary sources of earnings from investments in stocks, bonds and money-market securities.  Earnings are normally automatically reinvested in 401Ks, IRAs and other company sponsored investment plans.  However, for investments held in brokerage accounts earnings are not normally automatically reinvested.  For brokerage accounts, and most ETFs or mutual funds held outside of 401Ks or IRAs, you must sign up for their Dividend Re-Investment Program (DRIP) if you want your earnings to be automatically reinvested.  One of the simplest and easiest ways to increase your PRR is to ensure that all of your earnings are automatically reinvested.  The regular reinvestment of earnings is another source of dollar-cost averaging for your portfolio. 

V.        Rebalance as necessary
When you are young and starting your portfolio your investment objective should be primarily growth.  As you get older and closer to retirement your investment objective should slowly shift toward capital preservation and income.  Rebalancing your portfolio to meet your changing objectives should, in my opinion, not be done more often than once a year.  For me, rebalancing involves changing the direction of future investments.  As a “buy and hold” investor I do not sell my existing assets to rebalance my portfolio.  When I was young I invested virtually all of my money in stock funds.  Now that I am closer to retirement I am investing more of my money in bond and money-market funds, but I have not sold the stock funds that I purchased when I was young.  Over the long run stocks have always provided a better return than bonds or money-market securities so it is important to me to keep invested in stocks even though I am older.

VI.      Avoid common pitfalls
In my experience the six most common pitfalls that derail the best laid investment plans are:
1.       Failure to get started – Most people say they want to invest, but few actually do.  Start now!  If you don’t think you know how ask for help from me or someone else who knows about investing.  It is really much easier than you think.
2.       Failure to invest regularly – It is easy to allow other “wants” or “needs” to consume the money that could be used for investing.  Use the strategies discussed in lesson 1 to develop and stick to a budget that allows for regularly investing in yourself first (dollar-cost averaging).
3.       Failure to stay invested – Everyone knows that selling assets is one way to not stay invested.  Fewer recognize that borrowing against assets is another way to not stay invested.  Borrowing against assets can reduce the return on the asset to below zero, which is worse than selling the asset.  There are many reasons for selling assets or borrowing against them and they should all be avoided.  Make “buy and hold” your motto for investment.
4.       Trying to time the market – Getting out when you think the market is going down, buying in when you think the market is going up, or using the methods discussed in Section I.3 above to try and bet on the market have all been proven to be less effective in the long run than having a simple investment program that keeps you in the market and investing regularly.  My recommendation:  buy and hold and use dollar-cost averaging.
5.       Failure to reinvest earnings – Don’t be tempted to use the earning for other purposes.  Take advantage of automatic reinvestment programs offered by most funds and brokerages to make your earnings work for you.

6.       Failure to track and rebalance your portfolio – They say “what you fail to track you fail to improve on”.  You should use a tracking spreadsheet or some other tool to monitor your portfolio and set targets/goals for yourself.  If you don’t know how to set up a tracking spreadsheet, ask me or someone else who knows about such things for help.

Sunday, January 11, 2015

Lesson 3: Understanding the Mutual Fund

I.        Introduction
A mutual fund is a company that is in the business of making investments (an investment company).  Purchasing shares of a mutual fund is comparable to buying stock in a corporation.  When you invest in a mutual fund you are buying shares of the investment company just like buying stock in a corporation.  Mutual funds use the money invested in them by shareholders to purchase securities (stocks, bonds, money-market instruments, etc.) to meet the investment objectives established in the fund’s prospectus (a document published by the fund and updated on a routine basis disclosing detailed information about the fund).  The value of the mutual fund is determined by the value of the underlying securities it holds in its investment portfolio.  The share price of a mutual fund is called the Net Asset Value or NAV.  The NAV of a fund is normally calculated at the end of each business day by adding the day’s closing value of all of it securities and cash together, subtracting any liabilities and then dividing that resulting value by the number of shares outstanding that day. 

Before investing in any mutual fund it is important to read the fund’s prospectus as it contains information about the fund’s investment objectives, risks, management, historical performance, fees, etc.  You should always fully understand what you are investing in before you buy and a mutual fund prospectus is the source for the fundamental information you need to know about the fund before you invest in it.  Mutual funds also produce quarterly reports to shareholders that provide details about current performance and current assets held by the funds.  The fund, brokers, brokerages and other investment publications and rating agencies will also provide this information (generally for free) to non-shareholders.

One of the main advantages of investing in mutual funds over buying individual securities is leveraged diversification.  Mutual funds normally invest in many different securities (often over 100 different securities in a single fund).  Buying shares of the fund provides you with exposure to (although not direct ownership in) all of the underlying securities held by the fund.  Therefore, as an individual investor with limited funds you can get significantly more diversification buying shares of a mutual fund than you can buying individual securities.  For example, an investment in a mutual fund holding 100 blue chip company stocks will give you exposure to all 100 of those companies.  To buy individual shares in each of those 100 blue chip company would cost a significant amount of money.  If, for instance, each of those blue chip company stocks cost $50 per share then to buy only 1 share of all 100 different companies would cost $5,000.  To buy 10 shares of all 100 companies would cost $50,000!  On the other hand, most mutual funds have a minimum investment requirement of around $1,000 (some are $500 or less).  Therefore, for as little as $500-$1,000 you could get the same amount of diversification as the $5,000 or $50,000 portfolio.

The main advantage of diversification is the spreading of risk.  The risk of any single company failing or going out of business is significantly higher than 100 companies failing.  By investing in mutual funds you are spreading your risk across all of the securities held by the fund.  Further, by investing in several different mutual funds that are focused in different sectors of the economy (financial, industrial, retail, etc.) you can further spread your risk across many different sectors of the economy.  To get this same level of diversification buying individual securities would be impossible to all but the wealthiest individuals.

Another advantage of mutual funds is the economy of scale (cost savings associated with operating a large organization).  Investment companies work hard to hire and retain experienced, talented personnel to oversee their holdings and can spread the cost of this talent over a large asset pool.  Additionally, the fund managers, unlike most individual investors, are dedicated full-time to portfolio management and will, within the limits set by the fund’s investment objectives, quickly make the changes necessary to protect the fund from losses and generate the highest return for the investor.  However, one down side to the economy of scale is that if a fund grows too large it can become a prisoner to its size and not be able to move as quickly to adjust to changing economic conditions.  For example, a fund that has $50 million in assets can easily move a large percentage of its assets from one security to another, if it sees an advantage in doing so, without significantly affecting the securities being bought or sold.  However, a fund that has $50 billion in assets cannot easily move large percentages of its assets without potentially affecting the very market conditions it is trying to take advantage of.

II.        Types of Mutual Funds
There are thousands of different mutual funds available in the U.S. with hundreds of different investment objectives.  However, all of these funds fall into three different types as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC):
1.       Open-end Funds
The most common type of Investment Company (mutual fund) is the open-end fund.  An open-end fund can issue new shares without limit.  An open-end fund will also buy back shares without limit.  An open-end fund’s share price (NAV) changes daily based on the value of the securities it owns and the number of shares outstanding.  When you buy shares in an open-end fund you receive new, previously unissued stock.  Your investment increases the number of shares outstanding for the fund.  When you sell share of an open-end fund the shares are purchased by the fund and cancelled thus reducing the number of shares outstanding for the fund.  Open-end fund shares are bought and sold only once a day, at the end of the business day after the NAV for the fund is calculated.  Because of the fluid nature of the open-end fund the SEC requires all open-end funds to publish a new prospectus at least every 16 months. 

2.        Close-end Funds
Close-end funds issue a specific number of shares all at once in their initial public offering.  After the initial public offering the shares are traded on stock exchanges and the price moves up and down as determined by the market.  If demand for the shares is high the price will rise while if demand for the shares is low the price will drop.  When you buy shares of a close-end fund (after the initial public offering) you are buying them from other investors and not from the mutual fund.  When you sell shares of a close-end fund you sell them to other investors and not to the mutual fund.  Therefore, the share price of a close-end fund can change independently from its NAV.  If demand for the close-end fund is high its shares can sell at a significant premium to the fund’s NAV.  Conversely, if demand for the close-end fund is low its shares can sell at a significant discount to the fund’s NAV.

3.       Unit Investment Trusts (UITs)
UITs are like close-end funds in that they too issue a specific number of shares all at one time in an initial public offering. However, unlike close-end funds UITs are normally set up as an unmanaged fund for a specific purpose with a limited life span. UITs are also like open-end funds in that investors can redeem shares directly with the fund at any time.  Upon termination of the trust all outstanding shares are redeemed by the fund and the fund is closed.  Some UITs may allow investors to sell their shares on the open market.  UITs do not have a professional investment manager. The portfolio of securities held by the UIT is set by the creators of the trust and that portfolio remains unchanged throughout the life of the fund.

III.        Categories of Mutual Funds
The three different types of mutual funds discussed in Section II above can further be categorized based on the investment objectives or focus of the fund.  There are many different ways to categorizes mutual funds.  However, most funds can be broadly organized into three major categories based on the type of securities the fund focuses on:
1.        Stock Funds
As the name implies stock (or equity) funds invest in the common stock of corporations.  There is a myriad of different stock funds available in the U.S.  It is important to read a stock fund’s prospectus in order to understand what types of stocks the fund invests in.  The fund may invest in only U.S. corporations (domestic fund) or it may only invest in international corporations (foreign fund) or it may invest in both domestic and foreign corporations (global fund).  It may focus on a specific industry or sector, or it may be more broadly market based.  Stock funds are often subcategorized into a 3x3 matrix according to two primary factors: 
a.       The size of corporation (market capitalization or “cap” for short) the fund focuses on.  A corporation's “cap” is calculated by multiplying the number of shares it has on the market by the price per share.  The three common stock fund “cap” subcategories are small-cap, mid-cap, and large-cap.  As market valuations are always fluctuating the exact definition of what size a corporation fits into these three subcategories is always a bit nebulous, but for current market conditions large-cap stocks generally have market capitalizations of at least $10 billion, small-cap stocks have market capitalizations below $2 billion, and mid-cap stocks fit somewhere in between.  A fourth category, micro-cap, is also often used to identify corporations with a market capitalization of less than $300 million.
b.      The investment style the fund employs in picking its stocks.  The three investment styles are growth, value, and blend.  Growth funds seek to invest in stocks of fast-growing companies. Value funds seek to invest in stocks that appear to the fund manager to be undervalued (cheaply priced). Blend funds try to hit a middle ground between the other two styles by investing for both growth and value.
Often when reading reviews or reports on a stock fund you will see the following 3x3 matrix used to identify the fund’s subcategory:

Large-cap
Mid-cap
Small-cap
Growth
   X


Blend



Value



This example indicates that the fund under review is a large-cap growth fund.

2.        Bond Funds
Again, as the name implies bond funds invest in bonds or other fixed income or debt securities. Bond funds are also often subcategorized according to two primary factors:
a.       The credit rating or type of bonds targeted for purchase by the fund (e.g. high-yield or junk bonds, investment-grade corporate bonds, government bonds or municipal bonds).
b.      The maturity of the bonds held (short-, intermediate- or long-term).  Bond funds tend to have a target maturity range (such as five to ten years) that they strive to stay within.  Therefore, once established, a bond fund must constantly sell older bonds as they mature out of the target range and buy new bonds in order to stay in the target maturity range. Thus, most bond funds will never "mature" or expire like a specific bond would.
As with stock funds, bond funds may be domestic, global, or international funds depending on where in the world they focus their bond purchases.

3.        Money market Funds
Most money market funds invest primarily in short term IOUs issued by banks and the nation’s strongest, most creditworthy corporations.  Others may invest in the short-term bonds of the U.S. government or state and local governments.  There focus is always on low-risk capital preservation with high liquidity.  These funds are attractive to those who are seeking marginally better returns on their cash than what they would get from a normal bank or credit union account.

IV.        Management style
The different categorizes of Mutual funds can further be classified according to their management style:
1.        Passively Managed
Also known as “fully invested” or “index” funds.  A passively managed fund will generally be at least 80% invested in the securities of the index, sector or other investment vehicle it is following regardless of what is happening to the underlying securities.  Index funds arrange their portfolio of securities to match, as closely as possible, a market index such as the S&P 500 (a broad based index of 500 large U.S. corporations chosen by the Standard & Poor’s selection committee). Passively managed funds only buy or sell securities as needed to maintain the composition of the fund’s portfolio with the composition of the selected index or other target. This passive management style generally results in a passively managed fund having lower management and other fees than actively managed funds.

2.        Actively Managed
Also known as “fully managed” funds, an actively managed fund can exercise more discretion in buying and selling assets, within the limits set in the fund prospectus, to try to protect the fund from losses and maximize returns.  As mentioned above this active management style generally results in higher management and other fees which the investor hopes is more than off-set by better returns from the managed fund relative to the index fund.

V.        Fees
One of the main disadvantages to investing in mutual funds as compared to investing in individual securities is the myriad of fees that can be associated with buying, selling and holding mutual fund shares.  Again, it is important to carefully read a fund’s prospectus before investing to understand the types of fees associated with that fund.
1.         Sales fee (front-end load)
Some funds charge a sales fee or commission on shares purchased.  This fee is often adjusted up or down depending upon the number of shares purchased.  Generally the more share purchased, the lower the fee.

2.        Redemption fee (back-end load)
Some funds charge a redemption fee when shares are sold.  Often the redemption fee is reduced or eliminated the longer the shares are held.

3.        12b-1 fee
Paragraph 12b-1 of the SEC mutual fund rules allows funds to charge up to 1.25% annually to cover expenses related to advertising and other services provided by the fund.  Not all funds charge this fee so it is important to check the fund prospectus to see if this fee is imposed by a fund you are interested in.

4.        Operating Expenses (Management fee)
Expenses related to operating and managing the fund are paid directly out of the fund’s assets.  Management fees can vary greatly from fund to fund and can be listed directly in the fund’s prospectus, or included in the expense ratio.

5.        Other fees
There is a litany of other fees potentially charged by mutual funds.  Some examples include exit fees, exchange fees, automatic reinvestment fees, trustee fees, custody fees, fund administration fees, fund accounting fees, professional service fees, registration fees, etc.

VI.        Electronically Traded Funds (ETFs)
ETFs are a relatively new class of Investment Company that combines characteristics of both close-end and open-end funds. Like close-end funds ETFs are traded throughout the day on stock exchanges at prices that may be more or less than the NAV of the ETF assets.  Like open-end funds ETF shares can often be bought or sold at the end of each trading day at NAV.    ETFs traditionally have been index funds, but in 2008 the SEC began authorizing the creation of actively managed ETFs.  ETFs tend to have low fees due to their electronic format and propensity to be passively managed.